For so long I was hanging out with the rejects in my attic. Winter came and nearly collected. I was born on the outskirts of a bad dream, Daddy was addicted to almost anything. I was a miner of almost everything. I’ve been busting stones, now finally so proud to go back home. Knowing all my digging was in vain, a deeper hole, misdirected when the brightest moon and sun was right in front of me. And it would all look different without you. It wasn’t sunlight I was drinking all day long. But I’ve opened up like a Virginia Dogwood flower. And now we talk different than we did, I’m much less quiet then I’ve been. Not reticent. Don’t I look different truly being with you.
When I look at myself now, I for the first time have a positive self-vision or self portrait of myself. And I look ahead, not backwards. I want to have friends, that I can trust, including myself. I know I have those who love me for the man that I am, that I’ve become, and not the man that I was. And those friends, who won’t just let me be, be alone, as that’s the last thing I need. I don’t need to fit in, I have the perfect space. This is the best time and place. And I want to grow old, with the perfect love. Not surrender, giving my body back to the earth until I’ve made the best of all that is in this place.
Will you understand, where I am, and will hold on to who I can. We have paid our debts.
Ok now clear the house, a promise that I have to hold to. Will you understand, speaking to myself, and will you forget, when you have paid your debts? I will.
And now comes Endurance – as with Endurance, patience and seeing both sides of the coin we can thrive.
ENDING or ENDURING - U R Able to change and grow – those 2 letters U and R – create a very different picture, thought or conclusion, beginning. More #WORDIVATING.
I thought of this when I read about the recent discovery of the Endurance, a ship that was lost to the grips of the artic ice pack nearly 107 years ago. And I thought back to another great book I read, about that same boat the Endurance and the journey of Sir Edward Shackleton and his crew, who embarked on a mission to be the first to walk across Antarctica. However, the reality they faced had nothing to do with walking in the cold, and the reality didn’t come close to matching the dream or the vision. The images are fresh in my mind about reading the harrowing accounts of their survival of nearly 2 years after their boat the Endurance became stuck and then sunk by the ice. The endless darkness in the long nights and the blinding white bleakness of their surroundings, the book paints the picture of a true hell on earth reality for the crew of the Endurance. The unforgiving and unrelenting harsh artic environment and elements – icy cold temperatures, whitecapped iceberg-laden waves the size of buildings crashing on a small rescue boat desperate to reach help, the lack of food and supplies, wet boots, wind so cold and vicious it could rip half your face off, no blistex lip balm or north face jackets and future fabric sleeping bags there - the descriptions and detail of their survival story still gives me chills and makes my stomach churn.
A theme of the Shackleton Endurance story is how forging onward, misunderstanding risk, can result in crushing, literally ice-crushing or mind-crushing tragedies. The Endurance was trapped in ice for months before eventually sinking in 1915. The story that most know is a tale of perseverance, an utter miracle that during the failed voyage and shipwreck, all 27 men eventually reached safety 2 years later. Well mostly, because in truth the Endurance was joined by a second boat, the Aurora, from which three men died during the mission. So there is always more to the story than the glory.
Shackleton’s mission encompasses 497 days between stepping off solid ground at the start of the mission, to when they set foot on Elephant Island after losing the Endurance to the ice and the sea, then another 258 days until they reached South Georgia island (a whaling port where they found nourishment, supplies and support from others) and the rescue mission was completed. Then it was another 130 days until most of the crew of the Ross Sea Party were rescued (a much less documented part of the story). They truly had Endurance to fight for that long under dire circumstances, these men were bold as brass.
Sir Ernest Shackleton sought fame and recognition as an explorer, setting out in 1914 to cross Antarctica on foot, however he became well-known not for his success, but how he managed failure and survival when his mission dramatically changed became the unexpected rising action with new protagonists. The plan was to land near Vahsel Bay on the Weddell Sea on one side of Antarctica and travel across the south pole to the Ross Sea on the other side. Endurance was the most appropriate name as he and 27 others demonstrated this quality in remarkable ways in the two years they struggled to stay alive after their vessel was stopped and then swallowed up by the Weddell Sea ice. Shackleton’s mission began in August 1914 but by December, they were trapped in the polar ice pack, until the ship was abandoned in October 1915, soon sinking to the bottom of the sea never to be seen again until just a few days ago. In total the Endurance was powerless in the grips of the ice pack from January to November 1915. Shackleton and his men were left with three small lifeboats from which to navigate through the ice pack, which took months for them to reach land on Elephant Island. When Shackleton and his shipwrecked crew eventually found Elephant Island, it was a milestone and success that soon turned into crushing defeat and harsh reality - they had to go further to seek help and would never be found there on Elephant Island. Its unimaginable that they made the journey to Elephant Island successfully when you look at their resources, condition, and the harsh seas in front of them. And here they were, going farther when despair was stealing their breath like the piercing artic winds constantly plundered all their warmth and hope.
From Elephant Island, Shackleton and 5 of his crew embarked on a mission to find help and set course on one of the lifeboats toward South Georgia, some 800 miles across the Southern Ocean. The lifeboat, the James Caird, set out for South Georgia in April 1916, where ice, heavy winds, freezing air and water temperatures made for a miserable and unthinkable, impossible mission. 17 days later, they landed in South Georgia, however they were on the opposite side of the island from help. So now they marched for 36 hours across a desolate landscape reaching help on May 20th. It was not until the end of August that Shackleton was able to return to Elephant Island and recover the remaining 22 crew from the original mission. The story is remarkable in so many ways, but the story of true survival and endurance is only half of the story, the half we hear so much about. However, the total scope of Shackleton’s mission was that of two boats, one the Endurance would land on Antarctica and from there they would walk across to the other side of the continent, but there was a second boat the Aurora carrying The Ross Sea Party of nineteen men, which sailed to the opposite side of Antarctica to drop supplies for Shackleton’s team along the polar route they would never traverse. Things did not go so well for the Ross Sea Party, as they were not able to deliver the goods on the polar route as intended. They lost many of their sled dogs due to the unforgiving elements, with 10 men from the sledding party marooned on shore while their vessel the Aurora also became entangled in the ice pack and drifted away from shore. The Aurora drifted for six months before breaking free of the ice and was forced to return to New Zealand for repairs with part of the crew remaining marooned on land. It was not until early 1917 that the Aurora returned to Antarctica to rescue the marooned members of the Ross Sea party. Those men were stranded from May 2015 until January 2017. Three dying before rescue.
The Aurora was later sold by Shackleton and became a coal-carrying vessel between Australia and South America. That mission also proved fatal, as the boot disappeared in the Pacific Ocean in June 1917, and has been presumed lost or sunken since then. Perhaps a casualty of World War I, only a lifebelt and a bottle of wine were ever recovered. The lifebelt (think of a life-saving circular buoy you would throw to someone who had fallen overboard) found in the Tasman Sea between Sydney and Brisbane in 2018 and the wine bottle found awash on the beach in New South Wales in 1927. The bottle of wine is of special interest as it was engraved with a picture of the Aurora ship and a message that linked back to Shackleton and the crew from 1912. Another bottle of wine with a story.
So there’s the theme of endurance and resiliency, consistency, standing the test of time and the elements, never wavering from your mission. But there is also the point of balance, of two sides to every story. The Ross Sea Party, almost forgotten as part of the Shackleton history and story of enduring resolve and surviving against all odds, did not fare so well. So not to mention the fact that Shackleton’s mission failed miserably, in addition to the tragedy of lost life due to poor planning, unlucky execution that is not as well remembered or highlighted as part of the amazing story of Endurance. Maybe we have survivorship bias here again. Or another case of selective memory and blind spots.
Survivorship bias is a concept very relevant to the mental health perspective just as so many other subjects in life. I am here but I may not be well. And those who are not here, they are easily forgotten or not counted, therefore we underestimate a significant threat or make conclusions on incomplete data sets.
There certainly are two sides to every story, two ways to look at things. Here is one example I saw recently and sent me searching further for biases and perception evaluations. The simple word we all know too well: FEAR
We all have fears, we all know we must overcome them, but how do we think of fear:
Forget Everything And Run
OR
F - Face
E - Everything
A - And
R - Rise
Everything can go one of two ways in life, your bias, how you absorb or take in all the information, stimuli, thoughts, emotions and process things can be drastically different just one minute to the next. So take care in your process, the inputs accounted for and no blind spots. Step back and ask What If? Consider alternatives, and then examine the conclusions and how they appeared – if the process was sound, then so too should be the outputs. Data is rich, the insights valuable but don’t come easy.
Look at this example from World War II, where planes going into battle had about a 50% rate of safe return, and those which did limp back to base were tattered and torn apart by bullet holes from enemy fire. Observing the damaged areas on those returning planes, where they were most commonly hit by enemy fire, initially pushed the Allied forces to reinforce those areas with more steel and protection, perhaps they could better protect the planes from this attack in future flight missions. So then began a data analysis mission – compiling the bullet holes from all returning planes onto a diagram of a single plane to see the ‘hotspots’ where planes that returned were most commonly hit. Then a mathematician who was aiding in the scientific and engineering analysis behind the scenes of battle came up with a different perspective: Abraham Wald from Columbia University pointed out that perhaps the dataset was more valuable to show what areas were not covered in bullet holes on the planes that returned – perhaps the reason certain areas of the planes weren’t covered in bullet holes was that planes that were shot in those areas didn’t return – those areas where bullet holes on the returning planes were absent provided insights to the critical regions of the plane that needed to be fortified and re-enforced, which was in total opposition to the initial thoughts and intuition of many others.
So when you look at something initially you can be moved in a certain way, and strongly to think this is all figured out or very clear. But perhaps the true value and learning can come from a completely different view or perspective. I have found that in so many things – the inverse can be a great point of reference when you think you fully understand something. No matter how obvious it may seem at first thought.
Wikipedia yet again rescues us background and explanation, the history and insights just as Encyclopedia Britannica did for me over the years of elementary and middle school projects pre-digital: Survivorship bias, survival bias or immortal time bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to some false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias.
Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored (I would add hidden, forgotten, overlooked, avoided, misrepresented, locked away, lied about, and so many other terms or thoughts to this statement in the specific context of mental health), such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence (correlation "proves" causality). For example, if three of the five students with the best college grades went to the same high school, that can lead one to believe that the high school must offer an excellent education when, in fact, it may be just a much larger school instead. This can be better understood by looking at the grades of all the other students from that high school, not just the ones who made the top-five selection process.
Another kind of survivorship bias would involve thinking that an incident was not all that dangerous because everyone communicated with afterwards survived. Even if one knew that some people are dead, they would not have their voice to add to the conversation, leading to bias in the conversation. (Those who don’t speak up often have the loudest voice inside and the most to contribute, contributions which we need to hear. Or many times the silent ones need help and encouragement to feel able to open up, reveal themselves truly – until that extra effort and welcoming, they remain silent)
This last little part for me is the flashing lights, blaring sound we must process - just because we are all here living in the moment, seemingly happy, full and intact, no holes or wounds on the exterior, that may not always be the case. We often have no idea how difficult it is for someone to be present in the moment or alive at all. We cannot forget that there is a direction to be tough, to show no scars or weakness, which in itself is a weakness we must work together to shoot down. I read this early in my mental health journey and I await the day this has been debunked fully:
Mental health illness is long referred to as a Cinderella disease – a strong man doesn’t ask for help is our past generation speaking, they say pull up your boot straps and march on. That is not the way.
Today we have to think differently to act differently and reap different outcomes – consider that not everyone has the flexibility to touch their toes, or maybe their hands are already full from carrying a heavy load. No matter the reason, we should work to recognize and then take action to pull each other’s boot straps up and lock arms before we think of moving on. And move forward together.
Also very interesting – in the financial world, survivorship bias is common when you hear things like ‘our funds beat the Lipper average 70% of the time’ because many of the unsuccessful funds either are rolled into more successful funds or are abandoned fully, closed. So we have to be careful here - survivorship bias is the use of a current index membership set rather than using the actual constituent changes over time where you have the count the fallen or the dead. Headlines stats can be very dangerously manipulated in this way. Caveats.
And this survivorship bias stretches across many many topics, genres – from the myth that manufactured goods like equipment, cars, etc. were made to a higher quality standard in the past vs. today (they don’t make ‘em like they used to – we’ve all heard that) – but sure the only ones remaining are those which haven’t already crapped out. How many total were made vs. the number which remain and have withstood the test of time after so many years?
In architecture and construction[edit]
Just as new buildings are being built every day and older structures are constantly torn down, the story of most civil and urban architecture involves a process of constant renewal, renovation, and revolution. Only the most (subjectively, but popularly determined) beautiful, most useful, and most structurally sound buildings survive from one generation to the next. This creates another selection effect where the ugliest and weakest buildings of history have long been eradicated from existence and thus the public view, and so it leaves the visible impression, seemingly correct but factually flawed, that all buildings in the past were both more beautiful and better built.[according to whom?]
In highly competitive careers[edit]
Whether it be movie stars, or athletes, or musicians, or CEOs of multibillion-dollar corporations who dropped out of school, popular media often tells the story of the determined individual who pursues their dreams and beats the odds. There is much less focus on the many people that may be similarly skilled and determined but fail to ever find success because of factors beyond their control or other (seemingly) random events.[16] This creates a false public perception that anyone can achieve great things if they have the ability and make the effort. The overwhelming majority of failures are not visible to the public eye, and only those who survive the selective pressures of their competitive environment are seen regularly.
In music and arts[edit]
Music from earlier periods is often thought of as better than music now. This could be because only the best music from the period is played now, while today's music, good and bad, is far more available. So survivorship of better songs creates the bias in perception.[22]
In cats[edit]
In a study performed in 1987 it was reported that cats who fall from less than six stories, and are still alive, have greater injuries than cats who fall from higher than six stories.[23][24] It has been proposed that this might happen because cats reach terminal velocity after righting themselves at about five stories, and after this point they relax, leading to less severe injuries in cats who have fallen from six or more stories.[25] In 1996, The Straight Dope newspaper column proposed that another possible explanation for this phenomenon would be survivorship bias. Cats that die in falls are less likely to be brought to a veterinarian than injured cats, and thus many of the cats killed in falls from higher buildings are not reported in studies of the subject.[26]
In business law[edit]
Survivorship bias can raise truth-in-advertising problems when the success rate advertised for a product or service is measured with respect to a population whose makeup differs from that of the target audience whom the company offering that product or service targets with advertising claiming that success rate. These problems become especially significant when
1. the advertisement either fails to disclose the existence of relevant differences between the two populations or describes them in insufficient detail; and
2. these differences result from the company's deliberate "pre-screening" of prospective customers to ensure that only customers with traits increasing their likelihood of success are allowed to purchase the product or service, especially when the company's selection procedures or evaluation standards are kept secret; and
3. the company offering the product or service charges a fee, especially one that is non-refundable or not disclosed in the advertisement, for the privilege of attempting to become a customer.
For example, the advertisements of online dating service eHarmony.com pass this test because they fail the first two prongs but not the third: They claim a success rate significantly higher than that of competing services while generally not disclosing that the rate is calculated with respect to a viewership subset who possess traits that increase their likelihood of finding and maintaining relationships and lack traits that pose obstacles to their doing so (1), and the company deliberately selects for these traits by administering a lengthy pre-screening process designed to reject prospective customers who lack the former traits or possess the latter ones (2), but the company does not charge a fee for administration of its pre-screening test, with the effect that its prospective customers face no "downside risk" other than losing the time and expending the effort involved in completing the pre-screening process (negating 3).[31]
These types of bias are everywhere, and for me the message goes back to mental health, those who are showing up for work must be feeling good – if you were sick or dead you wouldn’t be clocking in. That is definitely not true, we are all working our hardest to pull it together, keep it together and show up, but that doesn’t mean we have things ticked and tied just as we hope to or project that we do. And survival takes Endurance and a committed crew.
What’s on the inside can often be very different than what is on the inside. And those bullet holes, the scars – they are telling us important things – deadly things if you want to extrapolate things that way, or they can be illuminating in a way that requires us to stop and process things in order to truly learn the lesson. I wonder what the crew of the Endurance were thinking, what was on Shackleton’s mind driving them towards survival vs. succumbing to defeat. That would be a really great book.
The connections, the more than coincidental occurrences and parallels - how it all comes together for me as I write, listen to music and reflect. Powerful and telling words, my own mission and the discovery of hope and explanation, resolve to move forward combined with the memory of the Endurance, discovered from the depths of the Arctic Sea. And the music further teaches me and moves me, again the sounds of the Avett Brothers, another layer of connection with the Avett’s music tied to the musical in San Francisco’s Berkeley Rep Theatre I truly need to see – Swept Away. Swept Away, makes me think of their song You Swept Me Away in so many ways, and now the play which intertwines their music with story of another famous shipwreck and survival – when in 1884 a whaling ship Mignonette was sunk in a devastating storm. The four surviving souls, at different places in their own lives, face singular and collective reckonings. And the questions: How far will I go to stay alive? And can I truly live with the journey and consequences?
Be willing to do everything and anything, every day to be your best. Keep moving forward. Even if you feel thousands of feet below the Artic ice, you have hope and will be found.
"We are honored that our new musical Swept Away is part of the return of live theatre and are thankful for everyone who will be traveling to Berkeley from around the U.S. and abroad to see it," said Seth Avett. "This project has been years in the making and we can't wait to share it with you all."
Truly remarkable, great projects are always years in the making. And premiering after two years on January 9th, 2022 after the pandemic I feel myself on the same plane as I have done the same emerging from my own pandemic just a few days later on the 13th. Mignonette is also the title of the Avett Brother’s 2004 album and lyrics from songs that I know by heart At the Beach, Signs, Swept Away, Nothing Short of Thankful, Pretty Girl at the Airport, New Love Song, Please Pardon Yourself, A Gift for Melody Anne the lyrics now speak to me more loudly and clearly than ever.
New Love Song
As the daylight sinks As I fail to stop and think Once I cursed the things I've done Won't you please forgive me
Young bride take my name Burn the questions burn the shame You don't have to live by them Won't you please forgive them
Signs
I see the signs everyday In your face and in the way that you act And it's not that that hurts my pride But now I see the other side of you The side that won't let down The side that won't let go
I didn't mean for me to see The things I see in you and me But now I know that we can live together The way I want to live free forever
Nothing Short of Thankful
Nothing short of thankful. Nothing's gonna change my mind, I'm travelin' a different highway. Nothing's gonna change my mind. I'm walkin' a different line. Oh, nothing's gonna change my mind. You'll find what you need if you want it. Nothing's gonna change my mind. I'll find mine.
At the Beach
I know that you're smiling, baby I don't even need to see your face
I have worries to give to the sea
Swept Away
You said with such honest feeling But what'd you really mean When you said that I'm your man Well, how my darling can it be When you have never seen me And you never will again?
That you swept me away Yeah, you swept me away
Well, life is ever changing but I Can always find a constant and comfort in your love With your heart my soul is bound And as we dance I surely know that Some kinda of heaven will be found
Please Pardon Yourself
How do I know when it's time to stop? Runnin' from the things I do, being things I'm not Oh, I have tried, I have tried to change my mind Every night befalls every morning light
Well, there's only so many ways You can give your loving to me But I'd give my soul for just for one of them now I'd give up the drinking, just tell me how 'Cause it's hard
The day will come, the sun will rise and we'll be fine
Pretty Girl at the Airport
Leave now while you can I'm not your man I know, I know
To have your things and wait there for a plane ride No one there to sit and hold your hand in flight But everyone I know out here is lonely Even those that have someone to lie beside at night
Leave me with the dawn It's almost gone
A Gift for Melody Anne
I wanna hold hands Yeah, and I wanna make love And I wanna keep running all day, and all night Even when my mind tell my body "that's enough" And I wanna stand up Yeah, and I wanna stand tall If I ever have a son, if I ever have a daughter I don't wanna tell them that I didn't give my all
And I just want my life to be true (I just want my life to be true) And I just want my heart you be true (just want my heart to be true) I just want my words to be true (I just want my words) I want my soul to feel brand, brand new Like a fresh coat of paint We could make it anything but blue Anything but blue
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